Asaduddin Owaisi, the leader of AIMIM, is running a well-organised and impactful campaign for Shifaur Rehman in Okhla and Tahir Hussain in Mustafabad. The large crowds at his rallies have impressed Okhla residents and political observers. However, the key question remains: Can Owaisi and AIMIM convert this crowd into votes for Shifaur Rehman, who is currently in jail in connection with the Delhi riots case? Rehman has been granted custodial parole, and there is a strong possibility he will join the campaign, leveraging sympathy to rally support.
Late candidacy announcement but strong presence in Okhla
AIMIM’s late announcement of Shifaur Rehman’s candidacy — after AAP confirmed Amanatullah Khan as its candidate for the third consecutive term — has not deterred Owaisi’s campaign in Okhla. His rallies have left a significant impact, with his roadshow from Zakir Nagar to Khalilullah Mosque in Batla House six days ago creating unease among Opposition parties. Owaisi’s address in Shaheen Bagh on January 29 also drew a large crowd, further bolstering his support base.
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Unlike in 2017 MCD election, when two AIMIM candidates, Arif Saifi and Laddan urf Kaushar Imam Siddique, lost despite a strong turnout at Owaisi’s rallies at Okhla Head, AIMIM has adopted a new strategy this time. The party has brought in prominent campaigners from Hyderabad to strengthen its presence in Okhla. Its star campaigner Imtiyaz Jaleel, who lost election in Maharashtra, is stationed in Okhla. AIMIM has brought in its top leaders and social media team from Hyderabad, along with alumni and students from Jamia and Aligarh Muslim University, who are also stationed in Okhla to amplify the pro-Shifaur message. Their strong presence on social media is helping to build a narrative of sympathy for Shifaur Rehman. The online campaign has been so impactful that it has left many residents uncertain about whether to support Amanatullah or Areeba, according to a social media observer.
For outsiders and many disconnected Okhla residents, it may seem like they are winning, said one resident. However, in Okhla, elections are not only contested in the virtual world. The area is divided along caste and regional lines, including Saifis, Qureshis, Jhojas, Paithans, Ansaris, Poorvanchalis, and people from Bihar and Western Uttar Pradesh. It will be interesting to see how much influence they actually have on the ground, or if they are just “social media tigers” who create a positive image without any real connection to the voters, much like the poll campaigns run by activists and small influencers, he said.
On January 29, Owaisi’s roadshow in Shaheen Bagh was another success, with another rally planned in Okhla Vihar in the night.
Rising tensions: Owaisi stirs political rivalries
Asaduddin Owaisi’s entry into the race has heightened tensions, not only with Amanatullah Khan but also with former Okhla Congress MLA Asif Md Khan, whose daughter Areeba Khan is contesting on a Congress ticket. The three main candidates — Shifaur Rehman, Amanatullah Khan, and Areeba Khan — hail from Western Uttar Pradesh, a region with significant political influence in Okhla. Rehman is from Satla, Amanatullah from Afghanpur, and Areeba’s father is from Bulandshahr, 40 km from Afghanpur. This shared regional background is expected to divide voters in Okhla. Amanatullah’s paternal grandmother’s family is from Satla.
Divided voters: Shifaur’s sympathy appeal vs political allegiances
Shifaur Rehman’s wife, Noorine Fatima, has worked to sway local voters by emphasising that her husband is in jail for the community’s cause, encouraging people to support him. However, voters from these influential villages are divided, with some sympathetic to Shifaur and others supporting Asif Md Khan or Amanatullah Khan.
Division of Muslim votes in Okhla
The political battle for Muslim votes in Okhla has intensified since Asaduddin Owaisi’s entry. Amanatullah Khan has accused Owaisi of being a “BJP agent,” a claim that Asaduddin’s AIMIM has strongly denied. Meanwhile, Owaisi has attacked both Kejriwal and the BJP. The battle for Okhla remains a direct contest between Owaisi and Amanatullah, with the Muslim community’s support likely to determine the outcome. This question will be answered on February 5, but for now, the war of words continues. Both Asif and Amanatullah have targeted Asaduddin Owaisi. The war of words reached a new low a few days ago when AIMIM MLA Majid Hussain used abusive language against Amanatullah during a rally in Batla House. In response, Amanatullah’s supporters did not hold back and condemned Majid for using inappropriate language against their leader.
Challenge of turning crowd support into votes
Political observers note that Owaisi’s biggest challenge lies in translating large rally turnouts into votes. One observer pointed out that in 2017, despite a huge turnout at Owaisi’s rally in Okhla Head, his candidates ultimately lost.
Election battle across five wards
The upcoming election will be contested across five wards, not just two, a point being narrated by Amanatullah. The incumbent MLA said he is contesting all five, benefiting from both Muslim and Hindu votes, with AAP’s freebies adding to his appeal. Political analysts are concerned that a divided vote could benefit the BJP, which has never won an election in the area but came second in 2020, securing nearly 60,000 votes. Amanatullah Khan won with over 130,000 votes, while Congress leader Parvez Hashmi, a former MLA and Rajya Sabha MP, finished third.
Amanatullah has time again said he will be fighting in five wards not in two as it is here that Shifaur, Amanatullah and Areeba are fighting. In 2020 elections, the BJP candidate Braham Singh was in second position with 59,900 votes and Amanatullah had won the election by over 70,000 votes, securing 1,30,000 votes approximately. Congress leader Parvez Hashmi, former MLA and Rajya Sabha MP, ended at the third position. This led to his downfall and his political dynastic journey has come to an end after Congress gave ticket to Asif’s daughter. Amanatullah had won from Okhla in 2015 too but with a lesser margin.
Vote split concerns: Will the BJP benefit?
With 55 per cent of the electorate being Muslim, there are concerns that a split in the vote could lead to a BJP victory, especially if the vote is divided between Shifaur, Amanatullah, and Areeba. In the 2020 elections, BJP’s Braham Singh secured second place, while Amanatullah Khan won with a significant margin.
Jamia connection: Shared backgrounds among candidates
Interestingly, all three main candidates — Amanatullah, Shifaur, and Areeba — are alumni of Jamia Millia Islamia. While Amanatullah attended Jamia but didn’t complete his degree (he later finished it through distance education), BJP candidate Manish Chaudhry also has ties to the university, with his father being an alumnus.
Amanatullah’s strategy: Focusing on “BJP agent” allegations and division of vote
Amanatullah Khan’s campaign has focused on portraying Owaisi as a “BJP agent” and warning that the division of votes will benefit the BJP. This message appears to be resonating with his supporters, strengthening his position in the race, said a political watcher Javed Ali. Ali explained that although residents are frustrated with Amanatullah Khan for failing to develop Okhla, many may still vote for him at the last moment due to concerns that the BJP could win. He recalled how, after the 2008 Batla House encounter, then-MLA Parvez Hashmi won by a narrow margin. Ali added that while much will depend on which candidate can maintain momentum in the final two days before the election, converting crowd support into actual votes remains a significant challenge for Asaduddin Owaisi.
